Below are the top 10 events and surprises that could impact financial markets and the global economy in the New Year. These are not forecasts, but potential macroeconomic, geopolitical, or market events that are not anticipated by financial markets. We also try to assess the probability of occurrence (high, medium, low) of each of them.
Oracle bets on OpenAI and Santa continuously delivers S&P 500 gains during the holidays. Each week, the Syz investment team takes you through the last seven days in seven charts.
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Below are the top 10 events and surprises that could impact financial markets and the global economy in the New Year. These are not forecasts, but potential macroeconomic, geopolitical, or market events that are not anticipated by financial markets. We also try to assess the probability of occurrence (high, medium, low) of each of them.
Gemini 3 has just been ranked as the best performing AI model, a reversal that few saw coming. A year ago, OpenAI models were leading the charts.
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Insights and research on global events shaping the markets
The S&P 500 index finished the week little changed, while the Nasdaq added 0.48%. The Russell 2000 Index performed worst, declining 0.86%, followed by the Dow, which shed 0.67%. Equities started the week broadly lower but reversed course toward the end of the week, supported in part by an encouraging US inflation report as well as strong earnings results from semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technology that seemed to help shift AI-related sentiment. On the macro side, US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest level in over four years while US core inflation dropped to slowest pace since early 2021. December business activity growth slowed to a six-month low. US Treasuries yields generally decreased across most maturities.
A “not so hawkish” Fed rate cut and ECB Schnabel’s comments drove a yield curve bear steepening last week.
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